FORESIGHT FRONTLINES: GLOBAL INSIGHTS ON STRATEGIC FORESIGHT INPOLICY-MAKING
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46763/SCGW25112g233aAbstract
In an era marked by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) (Bennis and Nanus, 1985), governments worldwide are increasingly turning to strategic foresight to anticipate and shape future challenges and opportunities. This paper presents a secondary research analysis of the institutionalization and application of strategic foresight in policy-making across diverse geopolitical contexts. By examining governmental foresight frameworks, national foresight programs, and policy innovation labs from countries including Finland (Heo and Seo, 2021) (OECD, 2022), Singapore (CSF, n/a), Canada (Government of Canada, 2022), and the European Union (European Commission, 2020), the study identifies common patterns, enabling conditions, and obstacles in embedding foresight into governance structures. The research also explores the varied cultural, political, and administrative lenses through which foresight is interpreted and operationalized, offering a comparative perspective on its effectiveness and impact. Ultimately, the paper proposes a typology of foresight adoption in policy-making and offers reflections on how global practices can inform more anticipatory and resilient governance. This contribution aims to enrich the discourse on strategic foresight as a critical competency for future-ready policy development.
Keywords: strategic foresight; policy-making; comparative governance; anticipatory governance; foresight typology
Downloads
References
Camrass, K. (2020). Regenerative futures. Foresight. Vol. 22 No. 4 2020, pp. 401-415, © Emerald Publishing Limited, ISSN 1463-6689
Centre for Strategic Futures. (n.d.-a). Who we are. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://www.csf.gov.sg/who-we-are/
Centre for Strategic Futures. (n.d.-b). Our approach. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://www.csf.gov.sg/our-work/our-approach/
Centre for Strategic Futures. (n.d.-c). Networks. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://www.csf.gov.sg/our-work/networks/
Committee for the Future. (n.d.). Committee for the Future. Parliament of Finland. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://www.parliament.fi/EN/valiokunnat/tulevaisuusvaliokunta/Pages/default.aspx
Courtney, H. (2001). 20/20 Foresight, Harvard Business School Press: Boston. MA.
CSF. (n/a). Centre for Strategic Futures. Retrieved from https://www.csf.gov.sg/
European Commission. (2020, September 9). 2020 Strategic Foresight Report: Strategic foresight – Charting the course towards a more resilient Europe (COM(2020) 493 final). https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52020DC0493
European Commission. (2021, September 8). 2021 Strategic Foresight Report: The EU’s capacity and freedom to act (COM(2021) 750 final). https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=COM%3A2021%3A750%3AFIN
European Commission. (2022, June 29). 2022 Strategic Foresight Report: Twinning the green and digital transitions in the new geopolitical context (COM(2022) 289 final). https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52022DC0289
European Commission. (2023, July 6). 2023 Strategic Foresight Report: Sustainability and people's wellbeing at the heart of Europe's open strategic autonomy (COM(2023) 376 final). https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2023%3A376%3AFIN
European Commission. (n.d.). Strategic foresight. https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/strategic-foresight_en
Finnish Government. (n.d.). Foresight activities and work on the future. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/foresight-activities-and-work-on-the-future
Fuerth, L. (2011). Operationalizing Anticipatory Governance. FEATURES. PRISM 2, no. 4. Retrieved from https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/journals/prism%20/v2i4/f_0024154_19699.pdf
Guston, D. H. (2014). Understanding ‘anticipatory governance’. Social Studies of Science, 44(2), 218-242. https://doi.org/10.1177/0306312713508669
Heo, K., Seo, Y. (2021). Anticipatory governance for newcomers: lessons learned from the UK, the Netherlands, Finland, and Korea. Eur J Futures Res 9, 9. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-021-00179-y
Hines, A. (2020). “Evolution of framework foresight”, Foresight, Published online 26 June 2020.
Hines, Andy & Bishop, Peter. (2013). Framework foresight: Exploring futures the Houston way. Futures. 51. 31-49. 10.1016/j.futures.2013.05.002.
Hofstede, G. (2011). Dimensionalizing cultures: The Hofstede model in context. Online Readings in Psychology and Culture, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.9707/2307-0919.1014
IFRC Solferino Academy. (2023). The Strategic Foresight Book. Retrieved from https://solferinoacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/The-Strategic-Foresight-Book-EN.pdf
Insight & Foresight. (n/a). What’s the difference between forecasting and foresight?. Blog post. Retrieved from https://www.insightandforesight.com.au/blog-foresights/forecast-to-foresight
Kogut, T., Eyal, T., & Sharon, I. (2017). Seeing into the future: Future time orientation as a moderator of temporal distance effects on educators’ decisions. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 30(1), 41–50. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.1930
Kooij, D. T. A. M., Kanfer, R., Betts, M., & Rudolph, C. W. (2018). Future time perspective: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of Applied Psychology, 103(8), 867–893. https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0000306
Kuosa, T. (2011). Strategic foresight in public policy: The cases of Finland, Singapore and the European Union. S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.com/stable/resrep05909.13
Marchant, G.E. (2011). Addressing the pacing problem. In The Growing Gap Between Emerging Technologies and Legal-Ethical Oversight (pp.199-205). Springer, Dordrecht.
OECD. (2022), Anticipatory Innovation Governance Model in Finland: Towards a New Way of Governing, OECD Public Governance Reviews, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/a31e7a9a-en
OECD. (n/a). Strategic Foresight. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight/
OPSI. (2020). Anticipatory Innovation Governance: What is is, How it works, and Why we need it more than ever before. Retrieved from https://oecd-opsi.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/AnticipatoryInnovationGovernance-Note-Nov2020.pdf
Policy Horizons Canada. (2024). Future Lives: Uncertainty. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/2024/future-lives-uncertainty/index.shtml
Policy Horizons Canada. (2024). Policy Horizons Canada Competencies Framework for Foresight Practice. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/2024/11/21/competencies-framework/index.shtml
Policy Horizons Canada. (2025). Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/2025/01/10/future-lives-social-mobility/index.shtml
Policy Horizons Canada. (n.d.-a). About Us. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/about-us/
Policy Horizons Canada. (n.d.-b). Our Work. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/our-work/index.shtml
Ramos, J., Uusikyla, I. and Luong, T. (2020). Anticipatory Governance — A Primer. UNDP. Retrieved from https://www.undp.org/vietnam/blog/anticipatory-governance-primer
Sitra. (2023a). Megatrends 2023. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://www.sitra.fi/en/publications/megatrends-2023/
Sitra. (2023b). Sitra in 2023: Megatrends, experiments in Finland and the start of strategy renewal. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://www.sitra.fi/en/news/sitra-in-2023-megatrends-experiments-in-finland-and-the-start-of-strategy-renewal/
Sitra. (2024). Projects and experiments. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://www.sitra.fi/en/projects/
Sitra. (n.d.-a). About Sitra. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://www.sitra.fi/en/themes/about-sitra/
Sitra. (n.d.-b). Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra undergoes renewal – focus on promoting economic growth and innovation. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://www.sitra.fi/en/news/finnish-innovation-fund-sitra-undergoes-renewal-focus-on-promoting-economic-growth-and-innovation/
Stolarski, M., Fieulaine, N., & van Beek, W. (2015). Time perspective theory: The introduction. In M. Stolarski, N. Fieulaine, & W. van Beek (Eds.), Time perspective theory: Review, research and application: Essays in honor of Philip G. Zimbardo (pp. 1–13). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07368-2_1
Strategy Group. (n.d.). Who we are. Prime Minister’s Office Singapore. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://www.strategygroup.gov.sg/who-we-are/
TFSX. (2022). Don’t confuse forecasting with foresight. November 1, 2022. Retrieved from https://tfsx.com/2022/11/dont-confuse-forecasting-with-foresight/
Tõnurist, Piret and Hanson, A. (2020). Anticipatory Innovation Governance: Shaping the future through proactive policy making. OECD Working Papers on Public Governance No. 44. Retrieved from https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/cce14d80-en.pdf?expires=1710851796&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=F900056C70D3E60B3FBC0201FA73BFF7
Wayland, R. (2015). “Strategic foresight in a changing world”. Foresight. Vol. 17 No. 5 2015, pp. 444-459, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1463-6689
World Economic Forum (2024). How true strategic foresight can help companies survive and thrive. January 31, 2024. Retrieved from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/01/strategic-foresight-help-companies-survive-thrive/
Zimbardo, P. G., & Boyd, J. N. (1999). Putting time in perspective: A valid, reliable individual-differences metric. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1271–1288. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1271