Eкономско планирање на туристичката побарувачка во Македонија

Abstract

The concept of economic planning of tourism development could not be applied if forecasting of tourism demand is neglected. The importance of application of quantitative forecasting methods is enormous when dealing with projection of future tourism trends. In that respect, the method of Exponential Smoothing is applied through the following models: Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) and the Holt-Winters Smoothing (HWS). The forecast evaluation emphasized that the DES model is more accurate and, thus, recommended for forecasting the number of foreign tourists in Macedonia in the period 2009-2014.