Eкономско планирање на туристичката побарувачка во Македонија
Abstract
The concept of economic planning of tourism development could not be applied if forecasting of tourism demand is neglected. The importance of application of quantitative forecasting methods is enormous when dealing with projection of future tourism trends. In that respect, the method of Exponential Smoothing is applied through the following models: Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) and the Holt-Winters Smoothing (HWS). The forecast evaluation emphasized that the DES model is more accurate and, thus, recommended for forecasting the number of foreign tourists in Macedonia in the period 2009-2014.Downloads
References
Борковиц-Вртипрах, В. и Рачиќ, М. (1998). Предвиѓање туристичког промета у Хрватској примјеном одабраних модела прогнозирање. Hотел у туристичкој дестинацији, Kњига I, Oпатија.
Chowdhury, A. and Kirkpatrick, C. (1994).Development Policy and Planning: An Introduction to Models and Techniques, Routledge.
Државен завод за статистика. (2009). Статистички преглед: транспорт, туризам и други услуги: Tуризам во Rепублика Mакедонија 2004 - 2008, Скопје.
Државен завод за статистика. (2009). Статистички годишник на Република Mакедонија 2008, Скопје.
Frechtling, D. C. (2001. Forecasting Tourism Demand: Methods and Strategies, Butterworth-Heinemann.
Gujarati, D. N. (1995). Basic Econometrics, McGraw-Hil.
Hall, M. C. (2005). “The Future of Tourism Research”, in: Tourism Research Methods: Integrating Theory with Practice, CABI Publishing.
Song, H. and Turner, L. (2006). “Tourism Demand Forecasting”, in: International Handbook on the Economics of Tourism, Edward Elgar Publishing.
Vanhove, N. (1978). “Tourism Planning: Economic Instruments - An Evaluation at the Project Level”, in: Tourism Planning of the Eighties, Edition AIEST, Vol. 19, Berne.
