POLITICAL AND SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE IN THE WESTERN BALKANS

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine that began in February 2022 has created a sense of urgency across Europe and thus pushed forward significant changes and readjustments of foreign, security, and defense policies. These major shifts have been referred to as Zeitenwende by the German chancellor Olaf Scholz, the turning point not only for Germany but for the whole European security architecture. Western Balkans is increasingly stated as an area of strategic importance for the European (Euro-Atlantic) security community, whereby it is the geopolitical interest of the both the EU and NATO to have the Western Balkans integrated. This is one of the regions where the interests of the West and Russian Federation collide – this factor adds to the already complex security dynamics resulting from domestic, bilateral, and regional issues that affect regional security and stability. Hence, one characteristic of the regional political and security dynamics is the long-term presence of external actors. This paper explores the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the Western Balkans’ political and security dynamics from the perspective of Regional Security Complex Theory.