Ignorance and Yugoslavia: A Causal Explanation of Yugoslavia’s Disintegration?

Abstract

Keutner (2004), in investigating the scientific methods in history, formulates the Principle of Ignorance as key for any causal explanation: The causal agent is not aware of the causal force until it impacts, causing the effect. On the other hand, historical explanations often involve narratives of action, intention, desires and beliefs. The culminating question of Keutner’s research is whether there is room for causal explanations by using the Principle of Ignorance in history. This paper will show that causality fails to deliver a sufficient explanation for the disintegration of Yugoslavia. This failure itself, however, can be informative allowing the reshaping of the discussion away from normativity toward a more fine-grained approach.

Key words: Yugoslavia, philosophy of history, causality, ethnicity, Milosevic