GIS-BASED MULTI-CRITERIA LAND SUITABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR CASSAVA CULTIVATION IN KWARA STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Cassava is a vital staple crop with significant economic and food security importance in Nigeria, particularly in Kwara State, a state with vast untapped agricultural land. This study employs a Geographic Information System (GIS) integrated with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to assess land suitability for cassava cultivation in Kwara State. Multiple spatial datasets, including soil properties, climate factors, topography, land use/land cover, and infrastructure proximity, were analyzed and weighted according to expert judgments. The resulting suitability map classifies the land into five categories, highlighting that approximately 50.8% of the area is highly to moderately suitable for cassava production. Validation using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve yielded an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.998, indicating excellent model accuracy in distinguishing suitable from unsuitable areas. The study provides a robust decision-support tool for policymakers and stakeholders to optimize land resource use and promote sustainable cassava production, thereby addressing local food security challenges. Recommendations emphasize targeted cultivation, soil fertility improvement, and the incorporation of spatial analysis in agricultural planning.